This Monday January 9th, 2012 we will all be watching as Alabama takes the field for a rematch against LSU and this time it's for the national championship.
The first game that was built up to be the game of the century and it didn't disappoint. It was a very low scoring defensive dominated game. This game promises to be no different. With over three weeks to prepare for each other I am sure that both offensives will have a few new wrinkles to try to confuse the opposing defense. The problem is that since these teams are conference rivals and both coaches are so familiar with the other that these surprises will only account for a few more big plays that will only turn into just a few more points.
Lets Break the game down.
Alabama's running offensive vs. LSU's running defensive: Even
When the Crimson Tide has the ball their number one goal will be to feed their Heisman Trophy Finalist Trent Richardson. Trent Richardson is a very fast and powerful running back. He is the type of back that loves contact and only gets stronger as the game goes along. The problem he will have is that much like the last game LSU will be able to put an extra Safety in the box to create an 8 man front. Last game Richardson finished the game with 23 rushes for 89 yards which is a 3.9 yard per carry average. I look for about the same this game.
LSU's running game vs. Alabama's run defense: Even
Alabama's front line is the best in college football and they showed it in the last game against LSU only giving up a combined 115 rushing yards to the Tigers. The one weakness that they have is against the option. On November 19 the Crimson Tide gave up 21 points and 302 rushing yards to Georgia Southern a Division I-AA football team. I look for LSU to adjust their offense and use mobile Jordan Jefferson to run the QB option much more often this game to loosen up the Alabama Defensive.
Alabama's passing game vs. LSU secondary: Advantage LSU
Alabama's Sophomore Quarterback A.J. McCarron only completed 16 of 28 passes for 199 yards and 1 interception. With no major game breakers at wide receiver and with LSU having the best secondary by far in college football don't look for the Quarterback to throw too many more times then he did last game. Alabama will try to throw a couple of times on first down and try to afford third and long and other obvious passing downs. In this game the sophomore will be asked only to manage the game and to avoid the costly turnover.
LSU's passing game vs Alabama's secondary: Advantage Alabama
In the last game LSU used more of its two head QB system with seniors Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. In that game Jefferson became the clear favorite and since then has taken most of the snaps. Jefferson is a mobile QB who doesn't have the best arm but has the legs to make up for it. Alabama's secondary held the Tiger Wide Receivers in check for only 91 yards receiving. Bama's secondary will again hold down the Tiger receivers but this time with Jefferson playing the majority of the game they will have to cover just a little longer and that will make the difference in a couple of more big passing plays for LSU.
This is a very evenly matched game that is going to come down to three things. The first one is home field advantage. Normally the National Championship game is played at a neutral site but not this time. Its no coincidence that LSU has won both of its National Championships in the BCS era at the Sugar Bowl. The crowd will be mostly Tiger fans and this will give the Tigers an edge. The second is whose quarterback will play the better game. In a game like this it's not always about who makes the play to win the game as much as who doesn't make the play to lose the game. LSU has its Senior QB Jordan Jefferson versus Alabama's first year stater A.J. McCarron. Because of experience Jordan Jefferson will make more plays than McCarron. The final factor in a low scoring game will come down to special teams. In this area LSU has a slight advantage as well with its own Heisman Trophy Finalist, the "Honey Badger", Tyrann Mathieu who will help to give Tigers an advantage in field position.
This is again going to be a very good low scoring game LSU will again beat Alabama 20 - 10 to win its third National Title in the Sugar Bowl.
